The Unpredictability of Requirements
There's a refrain I've heard on every problem project I've run into. The developers come to me and say "the problem with this project is that the requirements are always changing". The thing I find surprising about this situation is that anyone is surprised by it. In building business software requirements changes are the norm, the question is what we do about it.
One route is to treat changing requirements as the result of poor requirements engineering. The idea behind requirements engineering is to get a fully understood picture of the requirements before you begin building the software, get a customer sign-off to these requirements, and then set up procedures that limit requirements changes after the sign-off.
One problem with this is that just trying to understand the options for requirements is tough. It's even tougher because the development organization usually doesn't provide cost information on the requirements. You end up being in the situation where you may have some desire for a sun roof on your car, but the salesman can't tell you if it adds $10 to the cost of the car, or $10,000. Without much idea of the cost, how can you figure out whether you want to pay for that sunroof?
Estimation is hard for many reasons. Part of it is that software development is a design activity, and thus hard to plan and cost. Part of it is that the basic materials keep changing rapidly. Part of it is that so much depends on which individual people are involved, and individuals are hard to predict and quantify.
Software's intangible nature also cuts in. It's very difficult to see what value a software feature has until you use it for real. Only when you use an early version of some software do you really begin to understand what features are valuable and what parts are not.
This leads to the ironic point that people expect that requirements should be changeable. After all software is supposed to be soft. So not just are requirements changeable, they ought to be changeable. It takes a lot of energy to get customers of software to fix requirements. It's even worse if they've ever dabbled in software development themselves, because then they "know" that software is easy to change.
But even if you could settle all that and really could get an accurate and stable set of requirements you're probably still doomed. In today's economy the fundamental business forces are changing the value of software features too rapidly. What might be a good set of requirements now, is not a good set in six months time. Even if the customers can fix their requirements, the business world isn't going to stop for them. And many changes in the business world are completely unpredictable: anyone who says otherwise is either lying, or has already made a billion on stock market trading.
Everything else in software development depends on the requirements. If you cannot get stable requirements you cannot get a predictable plan.
Is Predictability Impossible?
In general, no. There are some software developments where predictability is possible. Organizations such as NASA's space shuttle software group are a prime example of where software development can be predictable. It requires a lot of ceremony, plenty of time, a large team, and stable requirements. There are projects out there that are space shuttles. However I don't think much business software fits into that category. For this you need a different kind of process.
One of the big dangers is to pretend that you can follow a predictable process when you can't. People who work on methodology are not very good at identifying boundary conditions: the places where the methodology passes from appropriate in inappropriate. Most methodologists want their methodologies to be usable by everyone, so they don't understand nor publicize their boundary conditions. This leads to people using a methodology in the wrong circumstances, such as using a predictable methodology in a unpredictable situation.
There's a strong temptation to do that. Predictability is a very desirable property. However if you believe you can be predictable when you can't, it leads to situations where people build a plan early on, then don't properly handle the situation where the plan falls apart. You see the plan and reality slowly drifting apart. For a long time you can pretend that the plan is still valid. But at some point the drift becomes too much and the plan falls apart. Usually the fall is painful.
So if you are in a situation that isn't predictable you can't use a predictive methodology. That's a hard blow. It means that many of the models for controlling projects, many of the models for the whole customer relationship, just aren't true any more. The benefits of predictability are so great, it's difficult to let them go. Like so many problems the hardest part is simply realizing that the problem exists.
However letting go of predictability doesn't mean you have to revert to uncontrollable chaos. Instead you need a process that can give you control over an unpredictability. That's what adaptivity is all about.
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