2006年对外经贸大学金融学院考研试题

（二）

Inflation targeting is one of the operational frameworks for monetary policy aimed at attaining price stability. In contrast to alternative strategies, notably money or exchange rate targeting, which seek to achieve low and stable inflation through targeting intermediate variables---for example, the growth rate of money aggregates or the level of the exchange rate of an “anchor” currency---inflation targeting involves targeting inflation directly. The literature offers several different definitions of inflation targeting. In practice, however, inflation targeting has two main characteristics that distinguish it from other monetary policy strategies.

The central bank is mandated, and commits to, a unique numerical target in the form of a level or a range for annual inflation. A single target for inflation emphasizes the fact that price stabilization is the primary focus of the strategy and the numeric specification provides a guide to what the authorities intend as price stability.

The inflation forecast over some horizon is the de facto intermediate target of policy. For this reason inflation targeting is sometimes referred to as “inflation forecast targeting” (Svensson,1998). Since inflation is partially predetermined in the short term because of existing price and wage contracts and/or indexation to past inflation, monetary policy can only influence expected future inflation. By altering monetary conditions in response to new information, central banks influence expected inflation and bring it in line over time with the inflation target, which eventually leads actual inflation to the target.

（三）

Technology, deregulation and liberalization have reinforced market competition, locally and internationally. Banks now have significant operations beyond their domestic borders. In the process, large, internationally active financial institutions with complex risk profiles have grown in size. Other domestic banks and institutions are also forging stronger cross-border linkages by acquiring customers abroad. Three related changes have also been important.

One: in the past, it was frequently the regulators who directly limited banks?business and risk-taking and---very often---shielded banks form competition. Now banks across various jurisdictions are able to take most of their own decisions---and face the consequences. They also have to withstand more competition. These developments have inevitably focused the minds of senior bank managements on the significance of managing risks.

Two: the economic context in which banks operate has changed. There is an increasing emphasis on “shareholder value” , which leads banks to focus on improving risk-adjusted profitability, rather than simply boosting business volumes. Banks are more aware of risks in their business and of the need to use their scarce capital resources effectively. They constantly develop and seek to improve sophisticated tools for assessing, monitoring and managing risks.

Three: banks now face increased competition from the alternative sources of finance that open capital markets provide. At the same time, various capital market instruments are now available to banks that can help them to manage their risk profiles in a more flexible manner. Banks not only need to price their produces based on a better assessment of risks, but they also need to really understand the advanced products that are available to mitigate or manage risks.

All these market developments are forcing banks to take a closer look at their risk management systems and procedures as they seek to better manage their business in a changing global banking scenario.

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